Analysis of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional socio-economic variables in Morocco using spatial econometric modeling.

Résumé

Abstract

The objective of this study is to assess the spatial influence of socioeconomic determinants of regional death rates related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Morocco. We start from a territorial approach to these issues through data published by the Ministry of Health at the level of each Moroccan region. We then use exploratory spatial econometrics techniques to detect autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity phenomena, in order to highlight the influence of population density, social inequalities in terms of income, employed population and hospital services on the rate of deaths related to the pandemic and to highlight spillover effects between regions located in close proximity to each other. The results of the fixed-effects model with the SEM spatial specification show the direct positive effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on socioeconomic factors in the Moroccan regions. Its indirect effects are insignificant and are generally explained by the central characteristic of the Moroccan Center-Periphery model.

Keywords : Pandemic COVID-19, Regional socioeconomic factors, Spatial exploratory analysis, spatial econometrics.